Friday, September 17, 2004

Shorter Gallup: "Republicans are more equal than Democrats"

What should we make of the Gallup poll that shows Bush leading Kerry? It's been corrupted to favor Republicans.

Luckily people more math savvy than I have figured out that the polling methods of Gallup are skewed in favor of Republicans.

Before you get discouraged by these results, you should be more upset that Gallup gets major media outlets to tout these polls and present a false, disappointing account of the actual state of the race. Why?

Because the Gallup Poll, despite its reputation, assumes that this November 40% of those turning out to vote will be Republicans, and only 33% will be Democrat. (Thanks go to The Left Coaster)

I'm glad this was found, but the problem is that this poll will get released all over for an entire news cycle without anyone getting to the press and saying, "BTW, the methodology behind this poll is wrong." When the press don't do their job, and the Republican's know it, they can get away with this crap over and over. The press should be skeptical of EVERYTHING. Too many people know how to twist a press that is too busy and understaffed to question things that were trustworthy years ago, but might not be any longer.


ellroon said...

What I'm afraid of is the deliberate tilting of the polls to the right will be used as an excuse to challenge the election when Kerry wins by a large margin.

9:53 PM  
spocko said...

Yes, that is exactly the fear that people have posted, It is also a fear that they will challange the voting if there is a narrow margin. "But the polls said Bush should have won! The voting must be rigged!" The fact that the Diablo voting boxes can't be verified can work against us if this polling data is accepted.
I wrote all the local TV media about this, but the issue was too "subtle" for them to handle. What they did was a man on the streets' "Do you trust the polls?"
And at least they cast some doubt on them. But as I've been reading a degree in statistics isn't something most people have. If the top line is wrong and that gets out there, you have already lost. That is why it is up to we the people (since the press has been coopted) to keep the press honest so that the top line lies and miscalculations don't get out there. Or if they do, we get into the first newscycle with the bad info so that it doesn't go unchallenged.

Thanks for your comment!

11:00 PM  
thehim said...

The notion of comparing this election to previous elections in trying to determine turnout or even somewhat to gather demographic trends is absolutely laughable. We might as well put a red toy and a blue toy in front of 30 toddlers and see which ones they pick, and we'll likely be more accurate than the current polling methods.

6:41 PM  

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